Form tables can mislead. We use expected goals, chance quality and pressing to show which teams are genuinely improving — and which are riding their luck.
A run of wins can hide a team that is getting outplayed, and a winless run can hide one that is about to turn the corner. Here we read form through underlying numbers: expected goals for and against, the quality of chances and how intensely a team presses.
Every article explains the method in plain English. To test a single result yourself, use the xG match calculator.
Why promoted clubs struggle in the Premier League, the two seasons when all three went straight down, how 2025-26 broke the pattern and what predicts survival.
Why having more of the ball does not mean winning more often, what a study of European football found, and which numbers to look at instead.
Results often improve after a manager is sacked, but research suggests they would have improved anyway. What the data says about the bounce.
Eleven seasons of Premier League results, 2015-16 to 2025-26: how big home advantage is, what happened without fans and whether it has come back.
What expected goals, expected assists and PPDA actually measure, how they are calculated, and how to use them without being fooled by small samples.