Possession is the first statistic many broadcasts show, and it seems to say who was in control. Yet every season brings matches won with 30% of the ball and lost with 70%. That is not just anecdote. Research suggests that, once you account for how good the teams are, possession on its own tells you surprisingly little about who will win.
The famous study
In 2013, Christian Collet published "The possession game?" in the Journal of Sports Sciences. He analysed data from 2007 to 2010 covering five major European leagues, UEFA competitions and FIFA tournaments, and asked whether keeping the ball more predicted success.
His findings, in short:
- Across a whole season, teams with more possession and more passes did finish higher in their domestic leagues.
- But at the level of individual matches, possession was a poor predictor once team quality and home advantage were taken into account.
- In league matches, the effect of extra possession after those adjustments was actually negative; in the Champions League it had almost no effect.
His conclusion was that the success of the "possession game" largely reflected the fact that the best teams tend to have the ball more, not that having the ball makes a team win.
Key point: Good teams have more possession because they are good. That is not the same as possession making them good. When a weaker team copies a possession style without the players to use it, the ball alone does not help.
Why possession misleads
- Game state. A team that goes ahead often sits back and lets the opponent have the ball. The losing side ends with high possession because it was chasing the game.
- Where the ball is. Passing between centre-backs counts as possession just as much as passing in the opponent's box.
- Style. Some of the most successful teams are built to counter-attack and are happy without the ball.
Example: Invented match for illustration. Team A has 68% possession and 14 shots, but most are from outside the box: 0.9 xG in total. Team B has 32% possession and 7 shots, three of them clear chances after counter-attacks: 1.8 xG. B had the ball half as much and created twice the expected goals.
Better questions than "who had the ball?"
| Instead of | Look at | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | Expected goals (xG) for and against | Measures the quality of chances created and allowed |
| Pass count | Passes into the final third or the box | Shows whether possession goes anywhere |
| Possession % | Field tilt: share of final-third touches | Shows territorial dominance where it matters |
| "Dominance" | PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) | Measures how intensely a team presses |
We explain xG and PPDA in How to Read Football Stats: xG, xA and PPDA.
When possession does matter
Possession is not useless. Over a season, it can reflect a team's control and its ability to rest in matches by keeping the ball. It also limits how often the opponent can attack. The point is that it is a description of style, not a measure of quality, and it has to be read alongside where the ball went and what came of it.
Watch out: Single-match possession figures are especially unreliable. A red card, an early goal or a team happy with a draw can swing possession by 20 percentage points without saying anything about who played better.
Want to see how chance quality decides matches? Enter each shot's xG into the xG match calculator and see how often each side would have won.
- Over a season, better teams tend to have more possession, but possession does not cause the success.
- In single matches, possession predicts little once team quality and home advantage are considered.
- Look at xG, final-third entries, field tilt and PPDA instead.
Sources
- The possession game? A comparative analysis of ball retention and team success in European and international football, 2007–2010 — Christian Collet, Journal of Sports Sciences, 2013
- A systematic review about the performance indicators related to ball possession — systematic review, 2022 (PubMed Central)
Premier League and Champions League by the numbers.